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Decided or Still Debating? 70% of Voters Know Their Pick for November

As the November presidential election approaches, a substantial majority of voters have already locked in their choices. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll reveals that 72% of voters are certain about their candidate, showing a slight increase from 69% in May. This solidification of voter preference underscores the high stakes and polarized atmosphere of this election cycle.

Interestingly, the poll indicates a stronger decisiveness among Trump supporters, with 76% already committed to their candidate, compared to 68% of Biden supporters. This could spell good news for Trump, who currently enjoys a 6-point lead over Biden—47% to 41%, with 8% still undecided.

The aftermath of last week’s presidential debate might be influencing these numbers. Biden’s performance, perceived by many as lackluster, seems to have had a significant impact. Among those who watched or heard about the debate, 75% reported their decision is made, suggesting the event could have cemented or swayed voter opinion.

Viewership of the debate was notably high among Republicans at 80%, followed by Democrats at 70% and independents at 62%. This keen interest highlights the importance of debates in shaping the electoral landscape.

Notably, Republicans showed greater certainty in their choice, with 84% stating they have made up their minds, compared to 72% of Democrats. Independents appeared more undecided, with 58% certain of their choice and 42% still considering.

The survey, conducted between June 28 and 30, sampled 2,090 registered voters. It represents a collaborative effort between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. The methodology involved an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel, weighted to reflect known demographics, thereby providing a snapshot of current voter sentiments.

As the campaign trails blaze ahead, these figures not only shed light on voter sentiment but also set the stage for what promises to be a closely watched and fiercely contested run-up to election day. The data suggests that while a significant portion of the electorate feels confident in their choices, a notable fraction remains up for grabs, adding suspense to an already dramatic election season.