Allan Lichtman, a renowned historian known for his accuracy in predicting presidential outcomes, has forecasted a win for Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. Lichtman, who has successfully predicted nine out of the last ten presidential elections, bases his forecasts on a model consisting of 13 key factors that steer clear of traditional polling methods. His predictions were detailed in a New York Times video, where he confidently stated, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.”
The 13 Keys of Political Forecasting
Lichtman’s model uses 13 true-or-false questions that serve as indicators of electoral success, which he describes as the “constant northern star of political prediction.” These keys assess a wide range of factors, including midterm election results, the presence of a third-party candidate, economic conditions, social unrest, scandals, and foreign policy successes or failures, among others.
According to Lichtman, eight of these keys swing in favor of Harris, while three support former President Donald Trump. Notably, the Democrats did not gain seats in the House during the 2022 midterm elections, President Biden has withdrawn from the race, and Lichtman suggests Harris does not meet the high charisma threshold set by his model.
The Implications of Lichtman’s Prediction
Despite the bold prediction, Lichtman emphasizes the importance of voter participation, ending his video with a reminder: “the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.” His model suggests a favorable outcome for Harris, but he acknowledges the dynamic nature of foreign policy, a domain where shifts could potentially tip the scales in Trump’s favor before the election.
Lichtman’s previous statements highlighted doubts about a Democratic victory if Biden were not the candidate. He had labeled the notion of replacing Biden on the ticket as “foolhardy nonsense.” However, his latest prediction places Harris in a strong position against Trump, even as national polling averages show a tight race with Harris holding a slim lead.
The Significance of Foreign Policy in the Election
The Biden administration’s involvement in international conflicts, such as the ongoing crisis in Gaza, remains a critical factor in Lichtman’s model. He points out that the situation is a humanitarian disaster with an uncertain outcome, which could influence the foreign policy keys in his model. Even if these keys were to flip, Lichtman believes the current tally of supportive keys for Harris would still prevent Trump from reclaiming the White House.
Voter Sentiment and Polls
While Lichtman’s model bypasses traditional polling data, it’s worth noting that many polls depict a closely contested race. This discrepancy between polling data and Lichtman’s model highlights the unpredictable nature of political forecasting and the unique aspects of each method.
As the election approaches, the tension between historical data models and contemporary polling will continue to provoke discussion among pundits, with Lichtman’s track record lending weight to his predictions. However, as always in elections, it is ultimately the voters who will determine the final outcome.
